The most popular savings option among Russians is bank deposits. Investments in mutual funds can be considered as an alternative to them. Investments in the purchase of shares, although quite risky, can bring much higher returns than from interest on deposits. So which option to choose in 2015?
Is it profitable to buy shares in investment funds (unit investment funds)
Russian mutual funds are going through hard times. After the 2008 crisis, their popularity among the population fell sharply, and the level of trust fell. As a result, there was an outflow of private investors' funds from mutual funds. But maybe this situation is unjustified and the risks are justified by increased income?
In 2014, the outflow of funds from mutual fund accounts reached a record high of $ 15 billion. The peak was in December. The main reason was the deep devaluation of the national currency. High inflation and an increase in deposit rates were other reasons for the outflow of funds.
All this made Russian assets unattractive, which were rapidly falling in value. Thus, the value of the shares decreased. Performance was low in both riskier equity and bond funds. Although, it should be noted that some mutual funds managed to show results higher than inflation and even more than 70%.
How can you assess the prospects of mutual funds for 2015? Experts believe that such investments should be approached with the utmost care. Mutual funds that invest in Russian stocks will be strongly influenced by the weak ruble. There are no prospects for its strengthening at the current low oil prices. Moreover, there are high risks that Russian ratings may be downgraded, which will lead to a sale of Russian securities and an even greater drop in their value.
In the scenario of revising the rating to a non-investment value, the bond market will also not be able to become a panacea. Even a decrease in the Central Bank rate will not provide an increase in the value of bonds.
The only option that experts recommend is foreign equity funds. This is due to the good economic performance of the American economy, as well as the expected quantitative easing in Europe. This should lead to an increase in the value of American and European securities.
Indeed, there is now a tendency that investors who leave funds in mutual funds are reorienting to foreign exchange assets. In 2014, funds that target the European stock and bond markets showed an increase in funds from depositors.
Are the contributions winning?
The panic that began in the Russian market in 2014 led to the fact that depositors began to empty their bank deposits and convert them into purchases faster. As a result, banks began to raise rates in the fight for each client. So, in mid-December, the average rate of the TOP-10 banks reached 15.3%, and in some exceeded 20%.
Interest rates on foreign currency deposits also began to increase and reached 9-10%. This, coupled with the accelerated devaluation of the ruble, made foreign currency deposits the leaders in terms of profitability in 2014.
It is expected that in 2015 the rates will remain at a high level due to the shortage of liquidity and the high rate of the Central Bank, which makes investments quite profitable.
But experts do not recommend carrying all the money to foreign currency deposits when the ruble is devalued. It is better to leave most of the funds in the currency in which the depositor receives income and makes most of the expenses. As a rule, these are rubles. The rest of the money can be placed on a foreign currency deposit.
The argument in favor of deposits is the fact that in order to attract customers to banks and prevent a banking crisis in Russia, the state has made the conditions for depositors more profitable. Now the threshold for insured deposits is 1.4 million rubles. instead of 700 thousand rublesThis amount will be guaranteed to be paid by the state in the event of a bank bankruptcy.
The rate on deposits, which is not subject to personal income tax, was also increased. For ruble deposits now it is 18, 25%, foreign currency - 9%. If the rate is higher, a tax of 35% will be paid on the excess amount.
Which is preferable in 2015: mutual funds or deposits depend on the risk that the investor is willing to take. 2015 is a very unpredictable year for investments, but it can also bring more income.
Rather, mutual funds today can be viewed as a way to diversify investments and, naturally, one should not invest the last savings in them. If earlier investors were advised to invest in mutual funds for a sufficiently long period, now the situation in the economy is changing so quickly that short investments are recommended.
Experts recommend short investment periods for those wishing to open a deposit. Probably, during 2015 the rates will grow and this will allow to place funds with greater profit in the future. You can also place part of the funds in savings accounts, which involve partial withdrawal. This will provide more freedom in managing funds and allow you to quickly respond to changes in market conditions.
