The serious devaluation of the ruble made Russians think about how to preserve their own savings and protect them from inflation? One of the most common investment tools is buying gold. But will investments in gold become an "island of stability" in 2015 and will they increase savings? To answer these questions, it is necessary to analyze the forecasts for gold prices for the current year.
What will be the value of gold in 2015
2014 was not an easy year for gold - after the growth in value in the first half of the year, by the end of the year it began to fall in price again. Since 2012, the price of gold has almost halved - from $ 2,000 / ounce to $ 1,150 / ounce. As a result, many investors preferred more efficient assets, such as stocks or bonds, to gold.
Among the reasons that negatively affected the price of gold are:
- strengthening of the dollar, which proportionally leads to a decrease in the price per ounce;
- weakening of inflationary expectations in the world amid falling oil prices (demand for gold traditionally grows when inflation rises, since its purchase is a hedge against the depreciation of money);
- slow economic growth in China and Europe.
Some point out that the value of gold has been overvalued for a long time, and now it is closer to the fair price.
Will gold be able to regain its lost ground in 2015 or will it continue to fall? Analysts believe that the above factors will be decisive for the dynamics of gold prices in 2015, so the consolidated position is that there will be no increase in the value of the precious metal. Gold price forecasts for 2015 are generally very restrained:
- Barclays expects average annual gold price of $ 1,180 / ounce;
- TD Securities, Deutsche Bank - $ 1,225 / ounce;
- Citi Research, JP Morgan - $ 1,220 / oz;
- Natixis - $ 1,140 / ounce;
- Commerzbank - $ 1,200 / oz.
- Goldman Sachs - $ 1,050 / oz.
At the same time, the price of gold in 2015 may fall even lower, but it will be supported by strong demand from China, India and, probably, Russia. Moreover, with the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world, the value of gold may rise, because precious metal will be perceived as a safe asset.
Gold price forecasts in Russia
The situation on the Russian market was different from the world one. The ruble dynamics of gold prices during the year showed a significant increase. With a starting price of 1261.58 rubles. (January 2014) by the end of 2014 it stopped at around 2146, 08 p. Thus, the increase was over 70%. This growth is associated with the devaluation of the ruble, which depreciated against the dollar by an equivalent amount.
Will ruble gold prices rise in 2015? Everything will depend on the dynamics of the ruble. Today, a lot of the trend suggests that the ruble may continue to fall. This, in particular, is a difficult geopolitical situation, low oil prices, a reduction in the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the need to pay off foreign loans by Russian companies.
Is it worth investing in gold
Analysts agree that investing in gold today does not allow for quick returns. They are justified on condition of long-term investment. For example, economist M. Faber predicts that gold may jump to $ 3,648 / ounce by 2018, and by 2023 - to $ 7,829 / ounce.
Moreover, investing all funds in gold is definitely inappropriate, it is better to consider them as a way to diversify your investment portfolio.
Experts suggest not to rush to buy gold, but to wait until Q2 2015, when the price of gold may fall even more. This is associated with the expectations of an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, and by analogy with previous years, gold prices reached their local minimum during this period.
