For many families, buying an apartment on a mortgage is the only chance to purchase their own home. What changes in mortgage programs can be expected from 2015?
Forecast of the mortgage market for 2015
The growth of the mortgage market in 2014 slowed down in relation to 2013 (according to preliminary estimates, it amounted to 21% versus 34% a year earlier).
In 2015, a further decrease in the growth of the mortgage market is expected due to the rise in the cost of loans, a drop in the purchasing power of citizens (as a result of the devaluation of the ruble), and the uncertainty of the economic situation.
On the other hand, the following factors will act as support factors: the growing popularity of real estate investments as a reliable way to save money, and the projected decline in apartment prices.
Mortgage rate in 2015
In 2015, the downward trend in mortgage rates will stop. A fall in average mortgage rates to 6-8%, as predicted by many forecasts 5 years ago, is not to be expected. On the contrary, mortgage rates in 2015 will only grow.
So, Sberbank at the end of December 2014 has already increased rates on mortgage loans from 14, 5 to 16%. But even such conditions can only count on the bank's salary clients who have entered into an insurance contract. For other borrowers, conditions will be more stringent - they can count on a rate of about 17.5%. VTB24, another popular among mortgage borrowers, also raised the interest rate on loans to 14.9% with insurance and 15.95% without it. Naturally, the terms of existing mortgage agreements will not be revised.
On average, the mortgage rate on the market jumped to almost 19%, which made it unaffordable for many Russians. How the situation will develop in the future will depend on many reasons, including the economic situation in the country and the reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. But according to the most optimistic forecasts, mortgage rates will average 15-17%. However, it cannot be ruled out that the state will support the mortgage market by providing subsidies at interest rates.
In addition to the rise in rates, one can expect the tightening of requirements of banks to borrowers due to the growth of overdue mortgage debts. In particular, an increase in the size of the minimum down payment and higher requirements for the size of the salary and work experience of the borrower.
What will happen to foreign exchange mortgages in 2015
Many Russian foreign currency mortgage borrowers found themselves in a very difficult situation due to the serious devaluation of the ruble at the end of 2014. As a result, all foreign exchange risks fell on the shoulders of the borrowers. This especially affected those who have income in rubles and who must convert rubles into currency. These people took out mortgage loans in a more favorable economic situation with the hope of a stable ruble exchange rate and focusing on a lower interest rate.
The government is preparing a number of bills aimed at supporting foreign currency borrowers who find themselves in a difficult situation due to the fall of the ruble. In particular, the deputies want to prohibit taking away housing for mortgage debts in dollars or euros.
It is also expected to discuss the project, according to which the mortgage can become exclusively ruble. The bill proposes to prohibit the issuance of mortgages in any foreign currency. It should be noted that the popularity of foreign exchange mortgages is now quite low. Its share in the total volume of issued loans does not exceed 1%.
But the requirements of the borrowers themselves, who demanded that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation share some of the currency risks with them, have so far been left without satisfaction. They also decided not to provide mortgage vacations.
A new social mortgage program begins to operate
In 2015, a social mortgage program with the support of the AHML will start operating in Russia. Program participants can expect to receive housing at a reduced cost (compared to the market price) and with a more attractive rate - from 10, 6 to 12, 84%.
This rate is expected to be almost half the market average. The initial payment will be from 10%, and the cost per square meter is not more than 30 thousand rubles. The loan term is up to 10 years. The program will be available throughout Russia.
The circle of potential borrowers for social mortgage in 2015 is quite limited. These are families in which each member has less than 18 square meters; recipients of maternity capital; parents with many children.
