The sharp collapse of the ruble on the currency exchange and the reaction of the Central Bank to this event left no one indifferent. Only the lazy today does not ask the question: what will happen to the ruble after the New Year, will the devaluation of the ruble and the depreciation of the exchange rate continue in 2015?
Of course, in such a critical situation it is a thankless thing to forecast the ruble exchange rate. Even scholarly financiers and high-ranking economists give completely contradictory forecasts on this score, one hundred will be with the ruble in 2015. If in the summer of 2014 the dollar was worth 35 rubles, then in mid-December the ruble rate fell sharply to almost 80 rubles per dollar, and only the emergency intervention of the Central Bank slightly slowed down this fall of the ruble. What to expect next from the national currency? Will the devaluation of the ruble continue in 2015? To what values will the ruble fall? What will happen to the domestic economy after such shocks?
Central Bank's reaction to the fall of the ruble
The former finance minister supported the regulator's actions to raise the base refinancing rate to 17%, assessing these actions as quite professional. Other opinions are also heard. Some say that this is clearly not enough - it should have raised this figure to 25%. Others in harsh terms criticize the actions of the regulator, assuring that by raising the rate by such an amount, the Central Bank simply destroyed the domestic economy, especially if this rule is in effect for a long time.
The cost of oil does not add optimism either - in their game of lowering the cost of oil, the Arab countries, willingly or unwillingly, contribute to stagnation of the economy in all oil exporting countries. The economy of Russia and Venezuela, the largest suppliers of black gold in the world, are suffering. This directly affects the exchange rate of our national currency, as well as the economic forecast for 2015. If the price of oil remains at the current level of $ 60 per barrel, the economy is threatened with a recession, and the ruble will continue to fall. It is unlikely that temporary cash infusions from the Central Bank will be able to influence the situation for a long time, although economists say that the ruble is significantly undervalued.
Forecast for the ruble exchange rate 2015
The Chairman of the Central Bank assures the population that the ruble exchange rate should stabilize, but this will take time. Other reputable economists agree with this opinion, but everyone agrees that this step is very risky - it can do much more harm to the domestic economy than help stabilize the ruble exchange rate. The explanation is simple - with a high refinancing rate, domestic industrial enterprises will lose the opportunity to receive loans, the increased rates will not allow them to develop effectively, which threatens massive ruin of large and small companies.
The Chairman of the Central Bank called on domestic producers to take advantage of the winning situation and conquer the markets, while financiers are trying to reassure the population with statements that simultaneously with the increase in the base rate, interest rates on deposits will increase. This is just a weak consolation after the ruble has already lost more than 60% of its value and the devaluation of the ruble in 2015 is likely to continue, but the likelihood that the ruble will win back the lost positions is very small.
Whatever the forecast for the ruble exchange rate in 2015: the fall, collapse of the ruble or its strengthening, the population should be patient and get used to new conditions, when salaries and pensions have significantly "lost weight", inflationary processes are gaining momentum, and goods and services will rise in price and beyond. Russians are no strangers to such surprises, but, alas, this does not add optimism. There is only one thing that is certain: according to the laws of economics, all crises end sooner or later, followed by economic growth. It remains only to wait for it impatiently.
