The forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the next 2016 worries almost every Russian. Indeed, not only the price of food in any store, but also the wages of citizens depends on the dollar exchange rate. The price of air and land transport tickets also reacts sharply to fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. Let's compare several forecasts from the government and world experts.
Forecast of the currency rate from the government of the Russian Federation
Almost 50 percent of the budget of our country consists of revenues from the sale of oil and gas resources for export. Therefore, fluctuations in oil prices on world markets have a similar effect on the Russian economy. The rise in oil prices is almost directly related to the decline in the dollar. The government said there are no plans to significantly increase oil production in 2016. Based on this statement, it can be assumed that at the beginning of 2016 there will be an increase in the price of energy resources on world markets. From observations in recent years, it can be seen that in the winter period the price of energy resources always increases, even if oil production does not decrease.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development said that the price of Brent oil should rise to $ 60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2016 and may reach $ 65 per barrel in the second. Consequently, the dollar rate will drop to 55 rubles in the first quarter, and in the second, its price may fall below 53 rubles per unit of the American currency.
But the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina does not share such an optimistic forecast of A. Ulyukaev. Although, according to the Central Bank's forecast, capital outflow in 2016 will decrease compared to 2015, but it will amount to about $ 86 billion. This capital outflow will have a large impact on the dollar's strength, despite the projected increase in energy prices. According to the forecasts of the head of the Central Bank, the dollar exchange rate in 2016 will fluctuate between 58-60 rubles per unit of the American currency.
Dollar exchange rate forecast from international experts
The forecasts of world experts are based not only on the price of black gold, but also on sanctions against Russia by the European Union and the United States. Experts agree that in 2016 it will not be possible to finally resolve the issue with Ukraine, despite the outlined progress in the peaceful development of events. In this case, the sanctions against Russia will remain in full and the restoration of trade relations with European countries will not happen. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the European currency. Although Russia has now strengthened its global position due to its participation in the Syrian conflict, sanctions against our country will not be lifted, according to US expert companies. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict the average dollar price for 2016 at around 62 rubles.
The instability of the situation in the world will have a great impact on the dollar exchange rate in 2016 and can radically change the situation, both for the worse and for the better.
