The dynamics of the European currency rate is now the main issue that worries not only financiers, but also ordinary citizens. The unstable situation in Ukraine, economic sanctions against Russia and fluctuations in energy prices cause very distant prospects for a large change in the euro against the ruble. The dynamics of the course should be considered in two stages, the first and second half of 2015.
Euro exchange rate forecast until the end of the first half of 2015
An increasing number of financial analysts are inclined to believe that the euro will continue to decline against the ruble and will cost 62.5 rubles by the end of March, and by the end of June the value of the euro will drop to 60 rubles.
The continuing shortage of ruble liquidity on the market and the ever-decreasing consumption of imports by Russia play a huge role in reducing the value of the euro. According to Rosstat, this indicator decreased by more than 40 percent in January-February 2015. This creates the preconditions for an increase in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation.
In general, the dynamics of the euro exchange rate will be influenced by such factors as:
- Western sanctions. Analysts believe that it was this factor that had a positive impact on the balance of payments of the Russian Federation. By the end of the first half of the year, Russia will fully restore exports through lucrative agreements with Asian partners, and a decrease in imports and its skillful substitution with domestic products will lead to a stabilization of the balance of payments.
- The situation in Ukraine. If all the "Minsk agreements" are observed and the crisis is resolved peacefully, the ruble will be able to strengthen against the euro and the dollar.
- Energy prices. Until June 2015, experts predict an increase in energy prices due to their sale to the People's Republic of China. Profits from the sale of non-ferrous metals, oil and gas will strengthen the ruble against the European currency.
- Investments. In 2015, investments will go to Crimea and the countries of the Asian region, which, according to forecasters, will bring considerable profits.
- The situation in the eurozone countries. Analysts predict unfavorable trends in the development of the economies of the EU countries. The key ZEW index, which reflects the economic condition of Germany, has declined, as a result of which there are no factors contributing to the growth of the European currency.
Euro exchange rate forecast for the second half of 2015
In the second half of 2015, a key factor in the dynamics of the European currency rate will be the meeting of the eurozone countries in June on the issue of lifting economic sanctions against Russia. More and more European countries are inclined to abolish sanctions and restore economic relations with the Russian Federation.
Financial experts and analysts predict two ways of developing the dynamics of the euro against the ruble:
- If the sanctions are lifted - 50-55 rubles per 1 euro.
- If the sanctions are preserved - 58-60 rubles per 1 euro.
Only experts agree on one thing: an increase in the euro over 60 rubles is unlikely.
If the sanctions are not lifted, then Russia's relations with the countries of the Asian region will play the main role in stabilizing the ruble.
