The resulting devaluation of the ruble in 2014 is held by the Central Bank. In October alone, he spent about $ 1 million to support the course. If the country's foreign exchange reserves continue to decline at a similar pace, they will not be enough even for a year: according to official data, their volume today is about $ 465 billion.
The use of reserve funds on a large scale has already occurred this year, in March. The day was named "Black Monday". The growing crisis in Ukraine has led to the need to enter the market with interventions in the amount of approximately US $ 11 billion.
Significantly complicates the forecast of the national monetary exchange rate at the end of 2014, the regulator's statement on the transfer to a freely floating exchange rate. Made almost immediately after Black Monday, it made it possible to think that the Central Bank would stop supporting the Russian ruble. Consequently, it gets the opportunity to both fall and rise as it hits the bottom.
A little later, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the announced free floating of the exchange rate does not mean at all that the regulator will not seek various measures to support the ruble. This means that there is no need to talk about a complete rejection of foreign exchange interventions. In addition, the Central Bank can spend as much on the stability of the ruble as needed.
Reasons for the fall of the ruble
Russian financiers argue that devaluation is a process strongly linked to the dynamics of oil prices. To a certain extent, this is how it is. But here you should also pay attention to the sanctions imposed by the West against the ruble: it not only limited the access of Russian companies to the capital market, but also contributed to the intensification of the process of money outflow from the country.
The value of the Central Bank in the gold and foreign exchange reserve
Experts believe that the need of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to use gold and foreign exchange reserves does not threaten them. The main task that the regulator is looking for is not so much support as smoothing out strong fluctuations. This means that the department not only sells currency, but also buys it.
The ongoing foreign exchange interventions are not strong today. Therefore, they will not lead to a strong depletion of the gold reserves of Russia. Thanks to them, Russians will not see sharp negative fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. To allow a sharp devaluation in these conditions would be not only inappropriate, but also too dangerous for Russian enterprises.
