Analysts' forecasts regarding the situation in the foreign exchange market differ significantly. According to some experts, the exchange rate against the ruble will be approximately at the same level as now. Others believe that a second wave of the crisis is approaching, oil prices will fall sharply, with them the price of the Russian national currency will decrease, and the dollar will cost about 40 rubles.
The world economy is not yet in a critical situation, but it is close to it. Analysts note that the most pessimistic forecasts in this regard have all the chances to come true. Some experts believe that the economic collapse has already begun, and soon we will be able to observe a really powerful crisis, which will be much stronger than the one that happened in late 2008 - early 2009. Despite the fact that some economists call Russia a place of calm and stability, pointing out that the economies of the European Union and the United States are bursting at the seams, the ruble exchange rate in late 2011 experienced a sharp drop. The dollar began to cost 32r, so its price did not rise so much for two years. The instability of the national currency clearly illustrates the economic situation in the country. Despite a deficit-free budget and a much lower percentage of external debt in relation to GDP than other countries, there are enough factors that can greatly shake the stability of the ruble. First of all, this concerns the fact that this currency is almost exclusively supported by raw materials. Experts have calculated that if the price of a barrel of oil falls below $ 60, the ruble will drop dramatically, and the price will rise to 40 rubles. If the oil price reaches $ 45-50 per barrel, the dollar rate will already be 60 rubles. True, many analysts agree that this is too tragic a scenario. It is difficult to expect that oil will fall in price so much. This, if it happens, then, in any case, not in 2012. Another factor undermining the stability of the ruble is the turbulent and opaque political situation in Russia. The events of the end of 2011 demonstrated that it is difficult to expect a movement towards a liberal political course in the country in the near future. Investors are concerned about the current situation, capital is being actively withdrawn from the country. At the same time, the process is not so intense as to greatly weaken the national currency of Russia, many are waiting for the development of events. Events in March 2012 can clarify the situation. It depends on how seriously a country is committed to democratic change whether Russia will receive outside support in a critical situation. This will ultimately determine whether the Russian economy will be able to cope with the crisis with the least losses. Analysts note that, despite the alarming symptoms of the market, the government is in no hurry to develop a backup plan for how to get the country out of a dire situation if it happens. The bottom line is as follows. The dollar is still the world currency, so serious resources will be thrown into its support, in which case, even if the United States cannot cope with the situation on its own. Much less stability should be expected from the ruble. Yet in 2012, economists do not expect large fluctuations in oil prices. In the best case, the dollar / ruble exchange rate will remain at the same level as at the end of 2011, and in the worst case, by the end of 2012, the US dollar will cost about 40 rubles.
