The devaluation of the ruble in 2014 dealt a tangible blow to the well-being of Russians. The prices of imported goods, which prevail in stores, have increased significantly, which dispersed inflation. What awaits the ruble in 2015? Should we expect its further collapse, or will it be able to recover at least to the level of 50 rubles per dollar?
At the end of December 2014, the ruble managed to win back its positions and the ruble entered the new year 2015 at a rate of 56, 23 against the dollar and 68, 36 against the euro. Unfortunately, the trend turned out to be not long-term, and at the first auctions in 2015, the ruble began to fall again. Probably, the temporary drop in the dollar and euro against the ruble was associated with the tax period and the sale of foreign currency earnings by companies, which fell at the end of December.
On the first working day of 2015, the dollar exchange rate was 62.73 rubles (+6.49 rubles by the end of pre-New Year trading), the euro - 74.35 rubles (+5.99 rubles). This is very likely not the most daunting exchange rate Russians will see in 2015.
As much as analysts want it, it is difficult to find significant factors to support the ruble. Basically, the situation in the market does not go into the ruble's hands. Therefore, there are more arguments for the fact that the devaluation of the ruble in 2015 will continue than against.
What factors will affect the size of the ruble devaluation in 2015
The ruble exchange rate in 2015 will largely depend on current oil prices. This is understandable: oil is Russia's main export commodity, and the fall in its value increases inflationary expectations. In this sense, the ruble is a fairly predictable currency.
Forecasts for the cost of "black gold" are very disappointing. It is expected that in the first half of 2015, oil will be trading at the current low level of about $ 40-50 per barrel. It should be noted that at the indicated oil price, the ruble is even considered overvalued to balance the budget. The fair exchange rate for the dollar at this price is about 72-75 rubles.
The low oil price is putting very strong pressure on the ruble. But although this is the main, but not the only factor in the devaluation of the ruble. External factors make a significant contribution. This is a general strengthening of the dollar in the world against the background of expectations of an increase in the rates of the Federal Reserve, as well as the crisis in the eurozone due to the possible exit of Greece.
The need for Russian companies to pay off foreign debts in foreign currency will have an impact in 2015. That, under sanctions and with closed access to foreign capital, will certainly lead to increased demand for currency and devaluation of the ruble. The next large corporate loan payments are expected in February, when the maximum decline is predicted.
Emotional mood is of particular relevance today, namely, high inflationary expectations of citizens. In such conditions, the economic mechanisms for maintaining the exchange rate do not work, and the market is in panic. At the same time, any negative news could lead to a colossal fall of the ruble.
The negative impact on the ruble is also exerted by the downward revision of Russia's sovereign rating by international agencies, a record increase in capital outflow from the country, and the general negative investment and business climate in the country.
What to expect from the ruble exchange rate in 2015
Danske Bank experts (who made the most accurate forecasts in 2014 according to Bloomberg data) expect that the ruble will update its local minimum of 80.1 rubles per dollar in the first quarter of 2015. However, the average rate will reach 75-77 rubles / dollar.
Russian analysts are more optimistic in their forecasts. But none of them expect the ruble to return to last year's level below 40 rubles / dollar.
Finam's positive outlook assumes that the ruble will strengthen to 50-52 rubles per dollar and 61-63 rubles per euro. Promsvyazbank expects that with the current negative environment, the dollar at the end of January may approach the level of 70 rubles, the euro - 81 rubles.
Alpari's forecasts are tied to the potential cost of oil. The price is $ 60 / bbl.will allow the ruble to strengthen up to 51 rubles, the euro - up to 62. While the higher oil price of $ 80 / bbl. could provide more substantial support. In this scenario, the dollar will cost 42–45 rubles, and the euro - 51–55.
Many people associate the possible recovery of the ruble with the policy of the Central Bank. Analysts expect tough steps from the regulator - the introduction of a standard for the sale of foreign exchange earnings and the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of foreign exchange. The Central Bank is expected to restrict ruble lending to banks that use the currency for speculative purposes. However, the administrative levers of influence on the Central Bank rate are also not unlimited. An illustrative example is that the increase in the key rate in December failed to strengthen the ruble.
It is worth noting that all forecasts should be treated with caution. So, in 2014, no analyst could foresee such a fall in the ruble. Most of the experts agreed that the ruble would not fall. But the most pessimistic assessments, which drew a lot of criticism, predicted that the ruble would reach a level of about 40 rubles. to the dollar and about 49 - to the euro.
The high value of the influence of geopolitics on economic processes makes forecasts less reasonable and susceptible to the influence of external factors.
