The situation on the foreign exchange market has remained ambiguous for more than a year now, which makes the population increasingly think about preserving their savings. The forecasts for the dollar exchange rate are contradictory. Some experts are confident that the Russian ruble will continue to fall, while others, on the contrary, believe that the dollar exchange rate will stabilize in 2016 and the Russian economy will begin to recover.
What factors will affect the dollar exchange rate in 2016
The main factor affecting the ratio of the dollar to the ruble is still the cost of oil. If in 2016 oil starts to cost more than $ 60 per barrel, the ruble will grow against the US dollar (somewhere around 40–45 rubles per dollar).
Western countries' sanctions against the Russian Federation also play a huge role. If the sanctions are eased in 2016, then this fact is guaranteed to help the growth of the ruble against the US dollar. If the sanctions are maintained or tightened, the dollar will still cost about 60 rubles.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation maintains a policy focused on the floating exchange rate of the ruble. According to many experts, the situation in the foreign exchange markets has already stabilized, so the ruble in 2016 may begin to strengthen against the US dollar and the euro. However, along with this, there is a completely opposite opinion of experts. Some analysts believe that it is precisely the policy of the floating exchange rate of the ruble that may lead to its fall in 2016 against world currencies.
The political situation in the world plays an important role. The outcome of events in Syria, Ukraine, Greece and the EU countries is unknown. These factors make it difficult to adequately assess the dollar exchange rate against the Russian ruble in 2016.
What will be the dollar exchange rate in 2016: opinion of the RF Ministry of Finance, RF Ministry of Economic Development, RF Central Bank
Russian official departments give rosy forecasts regarding the dollar exchange rate in 2016: the situation in the foreign exchange markets will improve and the dollar will cost about 50–55 rubles. Such prospects for the ruble are shaped by import substitution and higher oil prices.
Experts from Russian departments believe that in 2016 the ruble exchange rate will be in the range of 49–63 rubles per dollar. The maximum values will be recorded in September 2016, and the minimum in December next year.
Foreign experts' opinions
But foreign analysts believe that for one US dollar in 2016 they will give 70-75 rubles.
Why are foreign specialists so pessimistic? Mainly due to sanctions and falling oil. Crisis phenomena in the Russian economy are also predicted, which will manifest themselves just in 2016.
What Goldman Sachs analysts say
But the specialists of this reputable agency believe that the dollar exchange rate in 2016 will be fixed at around 58 Russian rubles per dollar. In their opinion, the oil price has already passed its minimum and will continue to grow.
What to do for ordinary people
Based on the foregoing, there is simply no consensus among experts: the international situation is very tense, and no one can predict the outcome of many important events.
What will happen in 2016? None of the predictions can be considered absolutely accurate. To protect themselves from an unstable situation, experts recommend that Russian citizens keep their savings in several currencies at once. It's time to get rid of the traditional US dollars and euros and turn your eyes to the yuan, Swiss francs and pounds sterling.
