Methods for calculating the planned sales volumes are of practical importance for any enterprise. It is these calculation methods that help to correctly plan the future economic activities of the company in order to obtain the greatest profit and maximum return on available resources. In economic practice, three main groups of methods are used: expert assessments, analysis and forecasting of time series, cause-and-effect methods.
It is necessary
Data of economic indicators for the past periods, specialized programs for faster and more accurate calculations
Instructions
Step 1
Calculate sales volumes using expert judgment methods in one of three forms:
- point forecast of a specific figure;
- interval, setting the boundaries for the value of the indicator;
- the forecast of the distribution of the probability of the value falling into one of the groups at specified intervals.
Step 2
Calculate sales volumes using time series analysis and forecasting methods using deterministic component forecast and randomness forecast. Use the obtained data to forecast changes in sales in trend, cyclical, seasonal and random series.
Step 3
Calculate sales volumes by causal methods based on modeling the behavior of an economic object using multivariate forecasting (correlation regression analysis, method of leading indicators, method of surveying consumer intentions, etc.).
