The Bank of Russia has resumed the purchase of foreign currency. Thus, the decrease in the likelihood of new shocks from sanctions is confirmed, and the authorities are quite satisfied with the current ruble exchange rate.
The Bank of Russia resumed the purchase of foreign currency. Thus, the decrease in the possibility of new shocks from sanctions is confirmed, and the authorities are quite satisfied with the current ruble exchange rate.
Go shopping
Since February of last year, all the surplus profits from oil sales have been directed exclusively towards buying foreign currency. Buying up dollars, pounds, euros. The Central Bank is the agent for all operations.
The interruption in procurement is explained by the authorities' control over the market. The sharp collapse of the ruble exchange rate, which began due to the appearance of new sanctions lists, caused a change in the schedule for the acquisition of dollars and pounds.
Since the beginning of 2018, purchases have been suspended on post-holiday January and February 19. The temporary refusal reduced the variability of the foreign exchange market, but the Ministry of Finance has not planned changes in the monthly volume of purchases.
Together with the Central Bank, after the establishment of a higher degree of stability in the market, operations will be resumed. The currency is purchased in rather small quantities.
Therefore, the volume does not constitute a practical impact on exchange rate fluctuations. The nature of the manipulation is rather symbolic.
It is likely, according to experts, that further tightening of the sanctions that threaten the ruble should not be expected. Return to purchases - evidence of the recovery of the national currency to the level desired by the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance.
They are not interested in the opinion of the current market, but they can influence it with the help of the current budget rule. In the short term, the authorities benefit from cheaper rubles.
There is no reason to worry
Since the Ministry of Finance does not intend to change the total volume of purchases, it is not going to forecast the number of daily purchases in the conditions of suspension of the impact on the change in the national currency rate.
Experts do not exclude that the volume of foreign currency purchases will increase over time. For what period the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will buy the required amount depends on the situation.
Little variability is a thing of the past, but the likelihood of a new weakening of the ruble has increased. By the end of the year, new declines in the national currency are expected.
It is planned that in the absence of changes in the sanctions regime for the ruble is likely to be stronger for periods of several months. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, banks are making favorable forecasts for the national currency.
A return to the rate of 57-58 "ours" for the dollar is unlikely. But the likelihood of a return to the rate of 61 ruble per dollar and other stronger indicators increases.
Sanctions through the weakening of the ruble affect the rate of price growth. So far, the sanctions impact and the weakening of the national currency do not affect inflation too noticeably.
A maximum of one point is added to it in six months. Traditionally, only a significant reduction, over 10%, has a significant impact. So far, this threshold has not been passed.
