Over the past six months, world oil prices have almost halved. Whereas the cost of gasoline in Russia had exactly the opposite dynamics. In this connection, many Russians have fair questions: why is gasoline so expensive in a country that is one of the leading oil producers, and why is it not getting cheaper as in the whole world?
So, in December 2014, the president demanded that the FAS find out the reason why the price of gasoline in Russia increased by 10%, while world oil prices fell by 35%.
In fact, the cost of oil prices on world markets has absolutely no effect on prices on the domestic market. The fact is that Russia does not buy oil for refining, but uses only its own. At the same time, domestic wholesale fuel prices in recent years not only did not decrease, but also grew (in 2014, on average, up to 30%).
There are several reasons why gasoline is becoming more expensive in Russia. Monopolization of the market can be called fundamental; imbalance of supply and demand; an attempt by oil companies to compensate for lost income from sales in foreign markets at the expense of Russian consumers; as well as tax policy in Russia.
Market monopolization
The level of competition in the Russian wholesale and retail market for the sale of petroleum products is extremely low. And where the market is monopolized, competition mechanisms do not work there and prices are largely controlled by the leading vertically integrated oil companies. And no positive changes in this area have taken place in recent years, on the contrary, the market continues to consolidate.
It is unprofitable for oil producing companies to sell oil to the Russian market
Another reason that explains why gasoline prices are growing is that the conditions for the sale of oil on the territory of the Russian Federation are less favorable than its export to world markets.
It is worth noting that government policy has made a significant contribution to this state of affairs. The state is also interested in selling as much energy as possible on the world markets, since the filling of the budget largely depends on this. Therefore, it creates additional incentives for export growth.
The priority of exports over the domestic market was reinforced by the adopted tax maneuver. According to him, the severance tax rate will progressively grow against the background of a decrease in export duties. So, in 2014 the severance tax rate increased by almost 5% to 493 rubles / ton, in 2015 it will increase to 530 rubles, in 2016 - up to 559 rubles. At the same time, the export duty was reduced to 59% in 2014 and will decrease to 57% in 2015, 55% in 2016.
It is sad, of course, that in the end, ordinary Russians have to pay for the increase in budget revenues. Paying for the high cost of gasoline, they compensate for the oil workers' expenses on the growth of mineral extraction tax. At the same time, the oil-producing companies themselves did not suffer so much from the fall in oil prices, since due to the devaluation of the ruble, their revenues in the national currency are growing.
Imbalance of supply and demand
An imbalance between supply and demand is a classic cause of rising commodity prices. It would seem, where does a deficit arise in a country that extracts oil itself?
The fact is that in conditions when export becomes more economically profitable, the domestic market is experiencing a deficit. Thus, according to official estimates, the supply of gasoline on the domestic market has recently decreased by 2%, which spurred up wholesale prices. Rumors of insufficient supply created the basis for increased demand, resulting in imbalances.
A number of analysts believe that such excitement is artificially created by the vertically integrated oil companies themselves, thereby spurring wholesale prices for fuel. At one time, the FAS even initiated a criminal case against a number of oil companies for violation of competition.
Tax policy in Russia
According to experts, the price of oil in the structure of the cost of gasoline does not exceed 6-10%. Therefore, price fluctuations in the oil market practically do not affect its value. And what then accounts for most of the cost of gasoline? In Russia - on taxes (mineral extraction tax, VAT, excise taxes, etc.)
In addition to the progressive growth of the MET, mentioned above, the reason for the rise in prices in recent years is the increase in excise taxes on gasoline. In 2014, they increased per tonne "Euro-4" to 9, 4 thousand rubles. (in comparison with 8, 6 thousand rubles. in 2013), for "Euro-5" - up to 5, 7 thousand rubles. (from 5, 1 thousand rubles in 2013). In 2015, it is also planned to increase excise taxes on fifth-class gasoline by a ruble per liter, which will increase gasoline prices in 2015 by another 10-15%.
What are the forecasts for gasoline prices in Russia for 2015?
The 2015 gasoline price projections also do not imply a decline in fuel prices. Thus, the FAS forecasts assume that the rise in gasoline prices in 2015 will be at the inflation level, i.e. about 7%.
The government expects at least 10% growth due to the tax maneuver. And analysts believe that soon the prices for gasoline in Russia should even be equal to the European level of 1, 1-1, 5 euros / liter.
