The past 2011 left a wagon train of problems and unresolved issues. According to experts who are unanimous in their forecast, in 2012 Russia may not pay off its external and internal debts, as well as fail to fulfill its social obligations.
The backbone of the Russian economy is the sale of oil and gas. The global economic downturn inevitably leads to lower consumption and lower prices. This is invariably reflected in the economic position of the exporting countries. In addition, Russia and China are the main powers that hold the securities of the United States of America. So far, the US has not announced a default, but the risk of a fall in the Russian currency exists.
If the rating of American bonds falls, it will provoke a wave of banking crisis. The next wave will cover everyone and will not pass by Russia.
Russia will be able to fulfill its increased social obligations only on condition that oil and gas prices remain steadily high. Summer 2012 showed that the price per barrel began to go down sharply. This means only one thing. The country's budget is melting before our eyes, there is simply nowhere to replenish it. A US default will bring Russian assets to zero.
The second wave of the crisis will bring dire consequences. First of all, there will be a collapse in production. This will be followed by massive redundancies. The confidence of the middle class in the banking system will collapse for at least 10 years. There will be no deposits, the banking system will collapse.
The government of the Russian Federation must take all possible measures to prevent a default in 2012. Unfortunately, it is no longer possible to stop global processes. Economic stability is temporary.
Brent crude oil prices are unlikely to drop below $ 100 per barrel. Oil-producing countries will feel comfortable enough. But exceeding this threshold will invariably accelerate the collapse of the global economy. Since Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas, default may occur not in 2012, but immediately after the economic crisis, which will inevitably overtake the United States and the EU countries.
In any case, 2012 is a watershed year for the entire global economy. Global changes may begin a little later.
