Knowing the changes in exchange rates in advance, you can choose the right time to buy or sell currencies and receive income from exchange rate differences. You can also choose a currency for storing personal savings, which will not fall in value. Even a loan could be issued in the currency, the rate of which will gradually fall. Few large companies that attract the best specialists to cooperation can correctly predict exchange rates.
It is necessary
Information awareness
Instructions
Step 1
A large number of events affect changes in exchange rates, a significant part of them represent various decisions that have already been made by people. And when they begin to be implemented, the impact on the courses happens instantly. No matter how ruinous or unexpected for many people the movements in the currency market are, there is always a person who predicted this. Most often this is a random guess, because there are a lot of various predictions, and at least someone just had to come true.
Step 2
To predict changes in the exchange rate, you need to know the opinions of competent people. Each person has an individual criticism of other people's opinions, however, an exchange of opinions with knowledgeable people is very useful.
Step 3
Collect and review the metrics you have access to on a daily basis, but consider the potential maximum loss in the event of a forecast error. Make assumptions about when the course will change, but remember that assumptions include different probabilities of an outcome. Evaluate the influence and intensity of the various factors that determine the exchange rate. Do not forget that it is not the indicators themselves that affect the exchange rates, but the processes that they reflect.
Step 4
The data on the volume of exports and imports, which are published by the statistical organizations of each country, help to predict the exchange rates, the volume of foreign currency that comes in or out of the country is collected by the central banks of the countries. When studying the volume of exports and imports of a particular country, pay attention to the indicators in dynamics and the trade balance. If exports to a lesser extent exceed imports or imports have become more than exports, then this situation contributes to the depreciation of the exchange rate, and vice versa.
Step 5
The planned actions of large companies and governments, which they declare, also have an impact on the demand or supply in the currency market. You can learn about the start of large projects and loans only from the news, and then with a delay.
Step 6
As a result, it turns out that all information about future plans that may affect the courses is available only at the moment when all kinds of influence have already been made.
