Oil prices are important for the Russian economy, since revenues from the sale of oil resources are backbone for budgeting.
As with any marketable commodity, the price of oil depends on the global balance of supply and demand. In practice, oil quotes are influenced by a complex of factors, among which a group of political, economic, social and technological factors can be distinguished. The influence of speculation on price dynamics cannot be ruled out. Recently, however, many governments have tightened their control over such operations and virtually eliminated them.
Factors Determining Oil Prices
During 2013, the growth in oil prices slowed down against the background of active dynamics observed in recent years. In the first months of 2014, the cost of oil remains quite volatile, while it has a general tendency to decline.
The price of the OPEC oil basket today is $ 105.46 / bbl, while in 2008 it cost $ 140.73 / bbl.
Among the key factors that currently negatively affect the price of oil, the following can be noted:
The unstable situation in the world economy does not lead to a drop in demand for oil. Despite the crisis in the United States and Europe, these countries demonstrated relatively stable energy consumption.
However, the main growth in demand until 2008 was in developing countries. In particular, China, India, Brazil, Latin America. Today these countries are characterized by economically unstable conditions as well as fiscal problems. This leads to a decrease (or stagnation) in energy consumption in them.
The gradual exit from the crisis of the American economy entails a strengthening of the dollar. It also keeps energy costs down.
Imbalance of supply and demand in the market, outstripping production growth. The decisive contribution to the growth of production belongs to Iran and Libya. In January 2014, the production of "black gold" in the OPEC countries increased to 29.9 million barrels.
Increase in unconventional energy resources (eg shale gas and oil sands).
At the same time, a high oil load on the leading economies, as well as positive statistics of industrial production in the US, EU and China, have a supporting effect on the price of oil. The cold weather in the USA and Europe had a favorable effect on the level of oil prices, which led to an increase in demand for energy resources.
Oil price forecasts
The World Bank made negative forecasts regarding the cost of all energy resources, including oil for 2014.
According to the forecasts of the World Bank, in 2014 the oil price will show a negative trend of 1% and will reach $ 103.5 per barrel.
Negative forecasts are due to a drop in oil consumption in China, India and the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, global demand will grow, but at a slower pace than production. It is assumed that in 2016 the price of oil will fall below $ 100 / bbl.
