During 2014, world oil prices have repeatedly set anti-records. It would seem that such dynamics should only delight ordinary citizens and be accompanied by a fall in gasoline prices and a decrease in the overall level of inflation.
But in Russia, the issue of oil prices is becoming especially relevant due to the high "tie" of budget revenues from the sale of energy resources, the direct dependence of the ruble exchange rate with the prices of "black gold", as well as the absence of a pronounced relationship between the cost of gasoline and the price of oil. Those. For the average Russian, the low cost of oil is rather a negative phenomenon: the weakening ruble only accelerates inflation, and retail fuel prices continue to rise as the wholesale price falls (contrary to common sense).
Since June 2014, oil quotes have lost almost 50% in price (from $ 115 / bbl) and in December futures traded at about $ 60 / bbl. And this is happening after five years of stability in the oil market. It would seem that there are no unambiguous prerequisites for a fall in oil prices: the world economy is emerging from the crisis, and industrial production is even showing some growth.
Thus, the most logical reason for the weakening oil prices, which lies in the imbalance of supply and demand, is probably not the only one. So why, then, is the oil price falling?
The decline in quotations demonstrates that investors do not believe in stability in the market and give a negative forecast for oil demand for 2015. Indeed, the outlook for demand growth in European and Asian markets looks very vague. Moreover, there are no prerequisites for the price of "black gold" to stay above $ 100 per barrel. not now, i.e. the price of oil was seen by many investors as clearly overvalued. This was one of the reasons for the fall in world oil prices.
Many are perplexed by the position of OPEC in the current conditions. After all, the organization, in whose hands is more than 40% of world production, does not take any steps to reduce production and influence quotations. And she said that she does not plan to take any steps, even if oil prices today fall below $ 40 per barrel. The official position of OPEC is that the fall in oil prices is the result of speculators' actions in the market, and accordingly, the establishment of quotas for oil production will have no effect.
A special role in OPEC belongs to Saudi Arabia, which accounts for about 30% in the structure of production. To maintain a balanced budget, the country itself needs the oil price to be about $ 100 per barrel. However, she has no plans to cut production.
Analysts believe that in this way Saudi Arabia seeks to maintain its market share. The country has a high margin of safety and can easily survive a temporary “drawdown” in the market. But the increase in the cost of oil will bring more benefits to its competitors.
An incentive to maintain low prices for OPEC countries in the market is the increase in shale oil production in the United States. As a result of the shale boom, the United States, as one of the world's largest energy importers, is reducing its demand for "black gold". However, shale oil production becomes unprofitable at a price of $ 60 / bbl. (and even below $ 90 per barrel), which allows oil exporters not to lose their market share. For comparison, the cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia is about $ 5-6 per barrel.
Another reason that makes Saudi Arabia push oil prices down is the struggle with its regional rival Iran. According to some estimates, the country needs an oil price of $ 135 per barrel to maintain economic stability.
Other analysts believe Russia is the main target in the oil war. It is believed that due to low oil prices, the Russian leadership should soften its international rhetoric, forget about the alleged "imperial geopolitical ambitions" and make certain concessions in relations with Western countries. Although the OPEC countries themselves officially refute this theory.
You can also find versions that associate the fall in oil prices with the sale of energy resources from captured wells by the Islamic State. According to some estimates, the terrorist organization sells oil on the black market with a total value of more than $ 3 million a day, at a price of about $ 30-60 per barrel. This discount, in turn, undermines oil prices.
