Assessment of the demographic situation in the country is the basis for predicting the needs and labor resources of society and, as a result, production volumes to meet the needs of the population. For completeness of the analysis, it is necessary to determine the natural and migratory growth and summarize these values.
Instructions
Step 1
To analyze the demographic situation in the country, the absolute and relative values of two types of growth are used: mechanical (migration) and natural. The second indicator characterizes the difference between the number of births and deaths of citizens over a certain period of time.
Step 2
In order for the data to be as correct as possible, statistical methods are used to track the slightest changes. These methods include birth and death control by special authorities. Data for this comes from maternity hospitals and hospitals and is documented.
Step 3
If the number of births in a certain period exceeds the number of deaths, then they speak of expanded reproduction of the population. If they are about the same, it is simple reproduction. If the difference between them is negative, then it is narrowed, which indicates a demographic decline and requires the introduction of emergency measures to stimulate the birth rate.
Step 4
The absolute estimate of natural growth consists in calculating the arithmetic difference between the volume of reproduction at the end and the beginning of the period, which can be any calendar interval, from a month to 5 years (short-term analysis) to decades: from 5 to 100 years (long-term analysis).
Step 5
For example, suppose that in a month the number of births was 155,000, and the number of deaths was 153,000. Then there is a natural increase of 2,000 inhabitants. This can be considered simple reproduction, since the difference is small compared to both values.
Step 6
The relative assessment of natural growth is carried out by calculating the coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is referred to the total number of inhabitants. Thus, a certain value is obtained that can be expressed as a percentage. For example: at the beginning of the year, the population of the country is 50 million people. During the year, 1 million people were born and 850,000 people died. The absolute indicator of natural growth in this case is equal to 150,000, and the relative one is (150,000/50,000,000) • 100% = 0.3%.
