The global energy market is an ideal object for all kinds of manipulations. Here the price is very sensitive to the amount of supply and demand. George Soros calls on Washington to start selling off strategic oil reserves so that world prices do not fall below $ 12 per barrel. History repeats itself. In the mid-1980s, Saudi Arabia dramatically increased oil production, and it was difficult for the USSR to maintain stability in the country. Will the United States be able to repeat this scenario and bring down world oil prices to $ 10 per barrel.
Oil lobby in the USA
Politicians may hate Russia and its independent foreign policy as much as they want, but the oil lobby in the United States will be able to resist them. Oil workers in the USA and Canada, of course, are vitally interested in high world prices for their products. Low oil prices will inevitably lead to the collapse of the profitability of production and shale gas and oil production.
Following the precepts of George Soros, an elderly stock speculator, philanthropist and Russia-hater, Washington conducted test deliveries of oil from US reserves, but this manipulation did not greatly shake world prices.
The response to the increase in oil production in the United States will be a proportional decrease in production in other countries. The United States cannot come to an agreement with all oil exporting countries simply physically, so the energy market will recover when a certain market balance of supply and demand is formed on it, which will not be subject to the influence of politicians. In the long term, it is simply unrealistic to maintain artificially low oil prices; it requires colossal financial investments.
China is not the Soviet Union in the 80s
In the 1980s, the United States confronted the USSR with its inefficient economy, huge military spending, and a disgruntled population that was tired of empty store shelves. Now the situation looks somewhat different. The main opponent of the United States is China, which also imports energy and is very much interested in lowering world energy prices.
There are real fears that by repeating the scenario of the 80s, the United States may provoke destabilization in the Arab world (do not forget: the budget of Saudi Arabia is drawn up on the basis of the oil price of $ 95 per barrel). The United States will not be able to compensate for the losses from falling energy prices to its Middle Eastern counterparts in the fight against Russia.
Political manipulation in the oil market
At the moment, only 5% of the total trading volume on the oil market is carried out by its direct participants. The remaining 95% are stock speculators who accelerate oil prices in the direction in which they need it.
In the 70s of the last century, the United States agreed with Arab countries that they would nominate oil prices in dollars and keep their income in American banks. This is how the "petrodollar" came into being. All countries turned out to be dependent on the dollar. Market participants are simply forced to buy US currency in order to settle energy contracts.
The conclusion from the above suggests itself: to make the energy market more stable and independent of external manipulations, it should be completely decoupled from the dollar.
Refusal from the petrodollar is a long-term and painful process. Of course, the United States will be very active in opposing him. So a drop in the oil price to $ 10 per barrel may occur, but since this price will be artificial, its return to the previous level will be a matter of a very short time.
