The unstable economic situation in Russia in 2014 also affected the state of the real estate market. What to expect from 2015 and what will be the cost of apartments?
The issue of the cost of apartments is traditionally relevant for broad groups of the population. Apartment sellers fear that they will have to sell their property for pennies, and buyers fear that they will have to pay extra for real estate.
Making long-term forecasts in a difficult economic situation and an unstable geopolitical situation is very problematic. Therefore, most experts limit themselves to short-term periods - for the next six months or a year.
The cost of apartments, like other goods, generally depends on the balance of supply and demand. Demand is largely determined by the solvency of citizens, and supply is determined by the dynamics of the construction industry and the availability of borrowed investment funds for developers.
Demand for real estate in Russia in 2015
During 2015, the demand for real estate is expected to fall under the influence of a number of reasons. Among them, the fundamental one is the decline in the availability of mortgage lending, which was the key driver of demand for apartments in Russia.
Mortgage loans in 2015 will be characterized by an increase in lending rates (by at least 2 pp), as well as an increase in requirements for borrowers from banks. So, already now, some banks have announced an increase in the minimum initial contribution to 40-50%. Under such conditions, mortgages will become inaccessible to many Russians.
Also, the drop in demand will be a consequence of the excitement that arose in the real estate market at the end of 2014. Then many buyers sought to quickly convert their ruble savings into apartments. Therefore, some Russians have already managed to meet demand, especially in its investment segment (when an apartment is bought as an object to generate income, and not to live).
The decline in the purchasing power of citizens as a result of the devaluation of the ruble and high inflation will also have a negative impact on the real estate market.
Forecast of building dynamics in 2015
The construction industry is already showing a drop in activity. Many potential projects are suspended, and only those that are at a high stage of readiness or have significant investment potential continue to be implemented. The construction industry is also negatively affected by the growth in the cost of borrowed funds for the implementation of projects.
Many homeowners in the secondary market are expected to choose to postpone their sale until "better times" in order to be able to raise a large sum.
This state of affairs will have two consequences - a redistribution of demand towards the secondary market, as well as a slight decrease in supply.
Apartment price forecast for 2015
This forecasted trend in the form of a fall in demand for real estate (with a lower rate of decline in supply) should lead to a fall in apartment prices in the second half of 2015. True, it is expected that it will happen gradually and not become impressive.
As realtors believe, the decline will mostly affect the secondary real estate market. Experts draw analogies with the crisis of 2008-2009. Then the ruble value of apartments fell by 10%, and their dollar equivalent fell even more - by 30-35%. A similar situation is observed now - prices for apartments in dollars fell more than in rubles.
Prices for new buildings in 2015 will continue to add to the price. According to experts, the increase may be 5-10%.
At the same time, a fall in apartment prices may not occur at all if the key rate is reduced, currency dynamics normalize, and the state develops measures to support mortgage lending.
