The decline in mortgage interest rates has stalled. The fall in rates will continue in the second half of the year and will last until the end of the period.
The drop in rates lasted for about two years. No changes were observed until mid-summer. On the other hand, in the second half of the year there was a further decline, albeit a very moderate one.
Current situation
The beginning of this year broke records in a number of indicators. Compared to last year's period, 2017, the volume of mortgage loans has increased.
Although, according to tradition, the indicators of the first quarter are below the fourth, "peak", the decline in comparison with last year "fell" from 22 points to 19. According to analysts' estimates, the total cost of a mortgage loan fell by three tenths of a percent.
The indicator remained stable throughout the period. No changes were noticed. But before that, there was an active intra-quarter drop in credit value. The situation is associated with the termination of the key rate cut by the Central Bank.
It has already dropped 6 times in 2017 and twice in 2018. The indicator dropped to 7.25 points. However, at the April meeting, the decline was not recorded: the regulator referred to market fluctuations. The mortgage average rate for the first quarter was approximately 9.7 percent.
After the key rate has been cut, there is no other way to reduce interest, except for lowering the cost of attracting financing.
Interest levels in the mortgage market have leveled off. However, the main players are developing a platform for automatic loan application review and post-application service.
Such work will allow in the future to reduce operating costs and provide an opportunity to revise operating costs and create opportunities to revise the terms of the loan.
What will happen next
Forecasts for the future course vary. According to some data, after assessing the situation in the country and stability in the economy, it is planned to resume the fall. The rate may stop at around 9%.
There are less optimistic forecasts. According to them, the downside potential will be limited to 0.5 points maximum.
It turns out that the average rate will not go down to nine percent. However, the level still remains minimal.
The number of borrowers is actively growing. Bankers expect mortgage lending to increase by a quarter. It is also possible that the forecasts are revised upwards.
The decline in property prices had a significant impact on demand. We can expect only a slight drop in the credit value: the population is content with the current indicators.
Banks do not need more attractive offers. Despite the increased popularity of mortgage loans, the segment remains in the zone of the least risky products for the banking sector.
This situation is ensured by the thoroughness of the verification of the applicants and the availability of collateral security.
