Inflation is understood as an increase in the level of prices for goods and services. If this phenomenon takes place in the economy, then for the same amount after a while it will be possible to buy significantly less goods than before. Recently, the attention of many consumers in Russia has been focused on how inflation rates are changing, since the quality of everyday life depends on the level of inflation.
According to data provided by the Central Bank of Russia, as of June 9, 2012, inflation in the country was 3.7%. Thus, the annual rate of growth in consumer prices remained at a fairly low level in relation to the targets set for 2012. The core inflation rate in May 2012 fell to 5%.
However, the situation may change in the coming months. Increases in some regulated tariffs and prices are planned for July, which could lead to higher consumer prices for food. The Bank of Russia does not rule out that inflation will still be within the target range. It is noted that the impact of the growth of tariffs on inflationary expectations is rather uncertain, and the high range of price fluctuations in the world foreign exchange market carries additional inflationary risks.
One of the factors influencing the dynamics of inflationary processes is the decrease in the growth rate of industrial production recorded in April 2012. Experts believe that the total output is kept within the potential level, therefore there is no pronounced pressure on consumer prices from the demand side, RIA Novosti reports.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has made its inflation forecast for Russia. The statement of the IMF advisor Antonio Spilimbergo indicates that since the country's economy maintains a level slightly higher than its potential, as well as the fact that the ruble has recently been losing its positions in Russia, inflation by the end of the year will rise to 6.5% and will remain at this level for 2013 year.
The government of the Russian Federation has not changed its inflation forecast. The forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation still leaves its level within 6%. The head of the Central Bank of Russia Sergei Ignatiev believes that the weakening of the ruble in the long term is unlikely to affect inflation. The measures taken by the state may soon return the ruble exchange rate to the April 2012 level. In general, the main economic indicators characterizing inflation coincide with the expectations of experts.
