In January, the IMF revised its forecast for economic development in 2015 for the worse. The reasons will be a slowdown in growth in China, risks of a recession in Russia and weak dynamics in the Eurozone.
World economic forecasts for 2015
According to the latest World Economic Outlook, the global economy will grow more slowly than previously expected. In 2015, global growth is expected to be 3.5% instead of 3.8% indicated in the previous report. Thus, the economy will develop slightly more dynamically than in 2014. Then the growth was 3.3%.
The forecast for 2016 was also reduced to 3.7% from 4%. What were the main reasons for reassessing the economic outlook for the worse? The main reasons are:
- low oil prices negatively affect the economies of exporting countries;
- the fall of the yen and the euro against the background of the growth of the dollar, from which countries with a high share of "dollar" commodity imports are losing;
- low growth potential in China and the EU.
The only country in which the IMF has revised its forecasts in a positive direction is the United States. In contrast, the country will benefit more from the fall in oil prices (like other exporters), which will stimulate domestic demand. The forecast for the growth of the American economy for 2015 is 3.6%. As a result, Great Britain will lose its role as a leader among developed countries in terms of economic growth (the forecast for the country is 2, 7%). But it will remain the EU development leader. The fund expects only 1.2% growth from the Eurozone.
In general, advanced economies will show growth of 2.4% in 2015-2016, and developing countries - by 4.3% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016.
The Chinese economy is expected to grow by less than 7% in 2015. The IMF has cut the forecast for the Celestial Empire for this year to 6.8% from 7.1%. Nevertheless, China and India (with an indicator of 6.3%) will become leaders in terms of economic growth in 2015.
Forecast of the Russian economy for 2015
With regard to Russia, the IMF predicts a serious decline in 2015 (-3%), while back in October 2014, a slight increase was expected (0.5%). The most important role in this belongs to the fall in oil prices, international sanctions and the tense geopolitical situation.
It should be noted that this is not the worst forecast for the development of the Russian economy. So, according to the stress scenario from the Central Bank, GDP may lose up to 4.8% in 2015 and another 1% in 2016. The EBRD has published a similar forecast for the fall of the Russian economy by 4.8%.
