In the spring of 2012, there was a trend towards the depreciation of the Russian ruble in relation to major currencies. This forces analysts to seriously revise their long-term forecasts and adjust expectations regarding the Russian financial markets. Ordinary Russians, usually far from the global economy, are also interested in the reasons that caused the weakening of the Russian currency.
In May 2012, the Russian ruble weakened significantly against the American and European currencies. Analysts associate this trend with the aggravation of the debt crisis in a number of European countries. The crisis led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the subsequent drop in oil prices. The Russian government took a number of measures to stabilize the national currency, after which the ruble's fall slowed down.
In the last ten days of June 2012, the ruble continued its decline again, losing its position against a negative external background. Since June 23, the official dollar rate has increased by more than 60 kopecks. Oleg Shagov, an expert at Promsvyazbank, said that the reason for the next fall in the ruble exchange rate was a sharp decline in prices for Brent crude oil. He did not rule out a further drop in oil prices.
Oil prices were shaken by information about the increase in the United States of crude oil reserves, as reported by the US Department of Energy. Earlier, experts in the oil industry predicted a reduction in oil product inventories, but at the end of the reporting period, they increased by almost 3 million barrels. The growth of oil reserves, in turn, is caused by the desire of the United States to increase imports of hydrocarbons. The situation was also aggravated by the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to postpone radical measures to stimulate the growth of the American economy.
According to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, Andrei Belousov, the current fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate are acceptable and do not require extraordinary measures from the government. The ruble exchange rate, the minister stressed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, is within the established corridor, and the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the financial markets in early June have significantly stabilized the situation. Konstantin Sonin, professor at the Russian School of Economics, in an interview with Echo Moskvy radio, expressed confidence that the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, allowing the ruble to fluctuate within certain limits, protect the real sector of the Russian economy.
