The increased attention to the dynamics of oil prices in Russia is due to the fact that hopes for the recovery of the Russian economy and stabilization of the ruble exchange rate are pinned on the rise in the cost of black gold. What are the expected oil prices in 2015 and should we expect their growth?
The decline in 2015 is not the first time oil prices have fallen in recent years. So, from April to May 2011, oil prices fell by more than 30% - from $ 113 per barrel. up to 75. In the crisis year of 2008, the value of the drawdown was even greater. Then the cost of oil fell by 72% - from $ 120.9 per barrel. in September to $ 33.9 / bbl. in December. Nevertheless, in all these cases, the oil price regained its positions relatively quickly.
Today's oil prices are perceived by many to be unjustifiably low. The question is, should we expect a quick recovery in prices in 2015, or is this recession protracted?
The first trading in 2015 showed disappointing trends: the oil price in January again goes into negative territory. Oil futures are now trading below the psychologically important $ 50 mark. And leading analysts (in particular, Goldman Sachs) make disappointing forecasts - a barrel of oil will be trading around $ 40 during the entire first half of 2015.
As for the forecasts for the average annual oil price this year, they are also rather restrained. Thus, according to the consensus forecast of analysts who were interviewed by Reuters in the fall of 2014, the average oil price will be $ 82.5 per barrel. As a result, they downgraded their previous forecast by $ 11.2 per barrel at once.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for the price of Brent crude in 2015 by $ 15 at once to $ 68.08 per barrel. from $ 83.42 / bbl
Thus, experts believe that the current decline in oil prices will be long-term.
At the same time, the dynamics of oil prices in 2015 will largely depend on the following factors.
1. The situation in the Chinese market. Today, oil consumption largely depends on the speed of recovery of the Chinese economy. In 2013, China ousted the United States as the world's largest importer of liquid fuels. Although today's indicators of economic growth, as well as the level of oil consumption in China, are not a driver, but a barrier to the growth of oil prices. Overall, the trajectory of the Chinese economy in 2015 will largely determine the price of oil.
2. The position of OPEC. The role that OPEC plays in pricing today could be traced back to the market's response to its last meeting. Then the organization decided not to reduce production in order to maintain its market share. To all appearances, OPEC has steadfastly taken this position and will not change it in 2015.
3. Oil production in the USA. The shale revolution in the United States caused an oversupply of oil and was one of the reasons for the fall in oil prices in 2014. By the end of last year, US oil production exceeded 9 million barrels. per day, which is 80% more than in 2007. Apparently, the United States is not going to abandon its plans to increase its own production. According to forecasts, the average monthly oil production in the United States in 2015 will amount to 9.42 million barrels, which will be a record since 1971.
4. Geopolitical factor. It is precisely the geopolitical crises, the aggravation of the situation in the world "hot spots" that can make all forecasts of oil prices unfounded and lead to a significant increase in oil quotations. Thus, the civil war in Libya in 2014 dramatically raised prices. The volatile situation in Iraq, where some of the wells were seized by the Islamic State, continues to raise fears of supply disruptions.
Low oil prices could lead to a recovery in market demand. Thus, in the United States, against the background of a decrease in the cost of gasoline, an increase in fuel consumption is already noted. If low prices continue to provoke an increase in consumption, this could lead to an upward trend in oil prices.
