Until recently, deposits in yuan were considered exotic for the Russian market and were offered only to wealthy clients. Today more and more banks have yuan-denominated deposits in their portfolio. Can such a product be considered as an effective investment tool?
RMB exchange rate predictions
Before opening a deposit in foreign currency, it is worth assessing its prospects.
The Chinese economy is one of the largest in the world, with great growth potential despite temporary stagnation. The yuan is one of the top ten currencies used in trade transactions, and may well enter the top three currencies on a par with the dollar and the euro.
Experts believe that in the future, the Chinese yuan is trustworthy. The main reason is that the likelihood of the yuan falling is extremely low. Analysts classify the yuan as an undervalued currency. The IMF believes that it is undervalued against the dollar by at least 40%.
The Chinese authorities are artificially restraining the growth of their national currency in order to keep the export of their goods at a high level. It is likely that they can "let go" of the rate in the near future to reduce inflation within the country. Thus, on a global scale, the yuan is one of the most stable currencies today.
The dynamics of the yuan to the ruble
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the dynamics of the yuan exchange rate was stable and positive. Over the past five years, from 2010 to 2015, the yuan / ruble exchange rate has more than doubled - from 44.2 yuan / 10 rubles to 90.62 yuan / 10 rubles (the Central Bank exchange rate as of January 1). Over the past year, the Chinese currency has added more than 67.9%. In the first days of January, the ruble lost another 15.9% against the yuan.
Taking into account the devaluation of the ruble for 2014, the yuan rose slightly less than the dollar against the ruble. But if we consider the three-year period, the yuan rose against the dollar. Thus, those who kept their savings in yuan were able to preserve and increase them.
In general, the yuan is considered the currency of the future and can be safely considered as an object for long-term investment. It is assumed that it will be able to outstrip the euro and the dollar in terms of growth rates.
RMB contribution: pros and cons
Russian banks noted an increase in interest in the yuan at the end of 2014, but the share of such deposits is still small. Leadership among foreign currency deposits belongs to deposits in euros and dollars. For the most part, deposits in yuan are attracted by legal entities, which is associated with both the strengthening of Russian-Chinese relations and the desire to protect themselves from sanctions. But more and more individuals are also interested in yuan.
The ruble today has a predominant downward trend against all world currencies. Therefore, keeping more than 70% in rubles, as advised earlier, is not worth it. The yuan is seen by many as a way to diversify savings. It does not exclude the presence of the dollar and euro in the investment portfolio, but is intended to complement them. Of course, it also makes no sense to transfer all savings into yuan, but they can amount to up to 10% in the investment portfolio.
As noted, the stability and great potential of this currency can be noted among the advantages of opening deposits in yuan.
Among the disadvantages are the relatively unfavorable conditions for deposits in yuan, which are found in the market. The rate on them above 3% is rather an exception. But given the fact that the number of such banking products is steadily growing, we can expect the emergence of more competitive proposals in the future. When considering rates, one cannot but take into account the general trend of the yuan's value increase.
The yuan does not belong to freely convertible currencies, which can create certain difficulties for their owners. So, today you can exchange yuan for rubles in bank units. Therefore, some experts believe it is advisable to open such a deposit only if a trip to China is planned.
Other opponents of opening such an exotic deposit to a wide range of the population insist that this is the lot of professionals in the foreign exchange market.
