The head of Sberbank G. Gref said about the high probability of a large-scale banking crisis in Russia in 2015. The blame should be on the low oil price and the need to create additional reserves. Uncertainty about the banking sector creates natural fears about the future of their savings and bank deposits.
What contributes to the start of the banking crisis in Russia
Some experts believe that the banking crisis in Russia began in 2014, but it will peak in 2015. According to Forbes, the deficit of bank capital is at least 2% of GDP today, which meets the criteria of a systemic banking crisis. Official statistics are more positive, as many problems are artificially masked by banks.
Experts from CMASP (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting) highly appreciated the likelihood of a banking crisis in 2015. For this to happen, it is believed that several conditions must be met: a significant outflow of funds from deposits; excess of the share of bad assets by more than 10%; mass nationalization (reorganization) of banks by the state. So far, only the first criterion can be observed.
The arguments in favor of the serious threat of a banking crisis hanging over Russia are:
- Sanctions and restrictions on access to foreign capital markets have created problems with foreign exchange liquidity for banks. Closed external markets, in turn, led to an increase in demand for loans within the country. At the same time, the volume of deposits decreased due to the panic among the population.
- There is a tendency towards "valueization" of deposits, while the reverse demand is formed in the majority for ruble loans.
- During 2014, there was an upward trend in overdue debts due to the difficult situation in the economy. The decline in effective demand for banking services is expected to further increase the share of bad debts in 2015. The situation is supposed to be more acute than in 2009, since the population's debt load has grown during this time.
- Decrease in lending growth rates. Lending growth is expected to be the lowest in recent years due to high interest rates and tightening requirements for borrowers. Thus, it will become more difficult for banks to pay the established high rates of 20% on deposits. Although, some experts believe that this will not lead to a crisis, but only to a drop in the profitability of the banking sector.
Meanwhile, the banking sector is influenced by stabilizing support factors that make the situation less critical.
Factors contributing to the stabilization of the banking system
According to the Central Bank, a banking crisis in Russia in 2015 is not threatened. Although the situation will certainly be difficult.
Former Finance Minister A. Kudrin, whose frightening economic forecasts periodically haunt the Russian press, also does not expect a large-scale banking crisis. In his opinion, one should expect a deterioration in payment discipline and a series of bankruptcies among enterprises. But this will affect the banking sector to a lesser extent, since it will be under the protection of the state.
Indeed, one can expect that it is government support that will become the determining factor in the stability of the banking system in Russia. Some important steps have already been taken, which should have a positive effect on banks.
Among them is the decision to capitalize the banking sector through federal loan bonds worth 1 trillion rubles. These funds have already been transferred to the DIA.
The outflow of funds from depositors' accounts should be stopped by a law on doubling the maximum amount of insurance payments - from 700 thousand rubles. up to 1, 4 million rubles. This should help increase public confidence in the banking system.
In addition to government support, other factors can be singled out in favor of the Russian banking system's ability to withstand 2015, although it is foreseen to be difficult. This is an improvement in the trade balance due to the weakening of the ruble; a decrease in the growth rate of unemployment, which can stimulate consumer demand; expected more stable behavior of the ruble, which will cause an inflow of deposits.
Most likely, a large-scale collapse of the banking system in 2015 will be avoided. However, the current economic situation will seriously hit medium and small regional banks. Many of them can indeed go bankrupt. Whereas the largest state and private banks will always be able to count on government support.
