The dynamics of currencies clearly reflects the main economic indicators of countries and the emerging political situation. The main attention of economists is focused on the EUR / USD (euro / dollar) pair. The difficult economic situation of many countries in the euro area is putting strong pressure on the European currency.
Most economists predict a strong fall in the European currency in July. Their forecast is still justified, as of July 7, 2012 the rate fell to the level of 1, 226, this is the lowest rate in the last two years. Nevertheless, the peak of the fall may still be ahead, a number of experts predict the lower limit of the euro rate in the region of 1, 15.
The main reasons for the fall of the European currency are poor economic performance, budget deficits in a number of European countries, and high debts. It would seem that the passions around Greece had just subsided, but calm did not come - there were more serious problems in Portugal, Ireland, Spain. German Chancellor Angela Merkel added fuel to the fire by refusing to support the plan to issue single debt obligations of the eurozone countries, the so-called Eurobonds. Merkel said bluntly that as long as she is the chancellor, this will not happen. Such statements by no means contribute to the growth of the euro.
The situation in a number of European countries is really critical, many analysts are sure that the collapse of the euro area is inevitable and all measures taken at the moment can only delay it for a while. Competitions are being held for the most painless plan for the collapse of the euro area, and the governments of several European countries are beginning to prepare to issue their own money.
Assessment of the situation in European countries suggests that the fall of the euro to the level of 1, 15 seems to be almost inevitable, this may happen as early as the end of July. There may be some delay around the 1, 20 mark - this is an important psychological level, it was there that the fall of the European currency stopped in June 2010 (the minimum was 1, 18). After reaching the level of 1, 20, one can expect a correction to the level of 1, 23-1, 24, after which the euro will begin to fall again to the level of 1, 15. The likelihood that the efforts made by the eurozone countries will be able to pull out the euro seems extremely low. At the same time, below the level of 1, 15 in the coming months, the European currency, most likely, will not fall, one can even expect a correction in the rate to the level of 1.26.
