The management of any enterprise is primarily associated with the planning of the production of products or the provision of services. But for many companies operating, for example, in the field of construction, tourism, trade, the targets are associated with the seasonal factor. This means that every year, at certain periods of time, there is an increase or decrease in demand for products or services provided by these companies. It is necessary to take into account the seasonality factor and determine its index or coefficient when planning.
Instructions
Step 1
Collect statistics for the past few years. It is better if they are presented in quantitative terms, since it will be more difficult to take into account the inflation coefficient - the data provided by official statistics do not always correspond to the real state of affairs on the market.
Step 2
Analyze the presented statistical data and remove from them abnormally large or small values that are associated with one-time, random transactions with very large clients or with rare, force majeure circumstances, the likelihood of a repetition of which is very small. Such volumes should not be taken into account in statistics.
Step 3
Determine what kind of detail you need - in some cases, accounting by month is sufficient, in others by week. For example, in the FMCG trade, seasonal sales are heavily influenced by the pre-holiday weeks.
Step 4
Determine the average volume of production of products or services provided for each month (or week) of the year over several years. Calculate the average annual and average monthly volume of production of products or services provided for the specified number of years. Calculate the seasonality index predicted for a certain month (or week) as the ratio of the average value of the volume of production over several years, for the desired month, to the average monthly volume of production of goods or services for n years.
Step 5
In essence, the seasonality index expresses as a percentage the share of production volume relative to its average monthly volume for the year. Use seasonality indices to forecast and plan production for the next year.
