Inflation in 2014 in Russia outpaced all the most pessimistic forecasts and reached double-digit levels. Forecasts for 2015 are still ambiguous and depend on a number of factors.
What was the inflation rate in 2014
According to Rosstat, inflation in Russia in 2014 was 11.4%. Of course, Rosstat's assessments surprise many Russians. After all, prices for goods and services rose before their eyes, clearly not by 11%. But it is on the official inflation rate that social benefits, in particular, pensions, will have to be indexed.
One of the reasons that official inflation is always lower than how Russians estimate it is that Rosstat publishes only an average estimate for a wide class of goods and services. In fact, individual products are becoming more expensive faster. For example, the cost of cabbage in December increased by 31.7%, cucumbers - by 28.1%, cereals rose by 34.6%. Also, TV sets (by 16%), microwave ovens, refrigerators (by 12.1% -15%), as well as computers (by 8.9%) have seriously added in price.
The indicated inflation rate became the maximum since 2008, when it amounted to 13.3%. In 2013, the inflation rate, according to official estimates, reached only 6.5%.
Forecasts of the size of inflation in Russia in 2015
The rise in inflation in 2015 is inevitable. This is due to the low cost of oil. It is the price of hydrocarbons that is the determining factor in the accelerated devaluation of the ruble. And due to the fact that most of the goods in Russian stores are imported, price increases cannot be avoided.
In 2015, according to analysts, inflation in Russia will grow stronger than expected. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate it at 13.7%. In January, they revised their previous forecast for the worse from 9%, which had been expected earlier. Experts suggest that inflation in certain periods may reach 15.1%, and by the end of the year it will drop to 10.6%.
Official estimates of the size of inflation in Russia in 2015 are more optimistic. The Ministry of Economic Development expects inflation at 10%.
The Central Bank in its forecasts is guided by the potential price of oil. If it is $ 80 per barrel, then inflation should be expected at 8, 2-8, 7%, with a price of $ 60 - about 9, 2-9, 8%. The regulator expects the main growth of inflation at the beginning of the year; as the market adapts to the new rate, it will decline.
Independent assessments are less encouraging. So, A. Kudrin predicts inflation at the level of 12-15%. Alfa-Bank expects that in the spring it will reach 15%.
The high projected inflation rate will be reflected not only in the rise in prices on store shelves. Such forecasts make the chances of a quick cut in the key rate of the Central Bank very illusory. Such a high cost of borrowed funds will restrict lending opportunities for individuals and companies, which will become a significant constraint on the growth of consumption and production. It will be especially difficult for business, since only a few companies have a profitability above 17% (the current key rate).
It is obvious that the official forecasts of the Russian economy should be revised in the near future. After all, the target for an inflation rate of 4 by 2017 is hardly achievable.
